By Allan M.R. MacRae, October 20, 2021
The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.
Following are the correct predictions of Allan MacRae and colleagues on:
GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISM
Our scientific predictions are infinitely more accurate than the mainstream narratives, which have been false and baselessly alarmist to date.
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THE CLIMATE AND ENERGY FRAUD
CORRECT CLIMATE AND ENERGY PREDICTIONS FROM 2002
The perfect Trifecta – my work here is done.
In 2002 co-authors Dr Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian, Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist, Carleton, Ottawa and Allan MacRae wrote:
Click to access KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
Allan MacRae published on September 1, 2002, based on a conversation with Dr. Tim Patterson:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
MacRae modified his global cooling prediction in 2013:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
See electroverse.net for extreme-cold events all over our planet.
https://electroverse.net/category/extreme-weather/
https://electroverse.net/category/crop-loss/
This global cooling is primarily solar-induced, driven by the end of very-weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) and the beginning of very-weak SC25, as I published in 2002 – one year before Theodor Landscheidt’s famous 2003 global cooling prediction.
NEW LITTLE ICE AGE INSTEAD OF GLOBAL WARMING?
T. Landscheidt, May 1, 2003
http://plasmaresources.com/ozwx/landscheidt/pdf/NewLittleIceAgeInsteadOfGlobalWarming.pdf
Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.
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CORRECT CLIMATE AND ENERGY PREDICTIONS FROM 2013.
Told You So, 8 Years Ago.
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA, BRITISH UNDERSECRETARY FOR ENERGY
By Allan MacRae, October 31, 2013
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/31/blind-faith-in-climate-models/#comment-1130954
[excerpt]
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
MacRae’s 2013 open letter was verified in 2021, with extreme cold winter forecasts and a green-energy-crippled electrical grid in Britain and Germany:
EUROPE IS SWITCHING BACK TO COAL TO SURVIVE BLEAK WINTER
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/26/europe-is-switching-back-to-coal-to-survive-bleak-winter/
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Other global cooling forecasts:
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA: “WE ENTERED THE ‘MODERN’ GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM ON JUNE 8, 2020”
August 30, 2020 Cap Allon
https://electroverse.net/we-entered-the-modern-grand-solar-minimum-on-june-8-2020/
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243
A new editorial paper has landed from Professor Valentina Zharkova, entitled: “Modern Grand Solar Minimum will Lead to Terrestrial Cooling“. Published on August 4, 2020, Zharkova’s latest analysis suggests that June 8, 2020 was the date on which we entered the Modern (Eddy) Grand Solar Minimum.
The opening paragraph reads:
“In this editorial I will demonstrate with newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.”
Dr Valentina Zharkova is mentioned above – her co-author Dr Yelena Popova is interviewed here about their 2015 paper predicting global cooling, starting circa 2020.
Global cooling IS happening now, as we correctly predicted in 2002, driven by low solar activity at the end of SC24.
Many recent extreme cold events are listed in my March 2021 paper (below) and many more have occurred worldwide since publication – see Electoverse.net
DOES MACHINE LEARNING RECONSTRUCT MISSING SUNSPOTS AND FORECAST A NEW SOLAR MINIMUM?
V.M. Velasco Herrera, W. Soon, D.R. Legates, August 1, 2021
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0273117721002465
[excerpt]
In addition, our ML model forecasts a new phase of extended solar minima that began prior to Sunspot Cycle 24 (ca. 2008–2019) and will persist until Sunspot Cycle 27 (ca. 2050 or so).
Drs. Herrera, Soon and Legates in 2021 used a novel analysis and reached a similar conclusion, for cooling from ~2008 to ~2050. I published that there was a period of global cooling that started in ~2008 at the end of Solar Cycle 23, and this cooling ended circa 2013.
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Expert meteorologist Joe D’Aleo and I co-authored this paper about the huge crop failures across the Great Plains of North America in 2019.
THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/
It is notable that crop planting has occurred one month later-than-usual in the North-central growing areas of North America in both 2018 and 2019. While warm summer weather saved the 2018 crop, in 2019 the Northern corn and soybean harvests were devastated by a cold summer and early cold weather. In 2019, there were many more record U.S. all-time daily low temperatures than record highs.
Severe flooding in China in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has destroyed crops and caused major concerns about food supply.
The following two papers published in 2020 and 2021 explain the twin frauds of Climate and Covid – scams that are promoted by the same leftist groups for financial and political gain.
THE CATASTROPHIC ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (CAGW) AND THE HUMANMADE CLIMATE CHANGE CRISES ARE PROVED FALSE
By Allan M.R. MacRae, January 10, 2020
https://thsresearch.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/the-catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming-cagw-and-the-humanmade-climate-change-crises-are-proved-false.pdf
“ There are numerous highly credible observations that falsify the CAGW hypothesis and many are listed herein, but as Albert Einstein famously stated “One would be enough”.
CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET
A Climate And Energy Primer For Politicians And Media
By Allan M.R. MacRae, March 21, 2021. Update 1e May 8, 2021.
[excerpt]
The same leftist groups concocted and promoted the global warming fraud and the Covid-19 lockdown scam, for political and financial gain. Then these groups linked the two frauds, stating “to solve Covid-19 we have to solve Climate Change” – utterly false and foolish, not even plausible enough to be specious. Then these same groups proposed their Final Solution, the “Great Reset”, a Chinese Communist Party style dictatorship, a centrally-controlled economy where we live like poor slaves, lorded over by our wealthy political masters.
The tragic reality is that the twin frauds of Climate-and-Covid have been accepted by most politicians. Some have covertly or overtly embraced extreme-left politics, and others are so simple-minded and gullible that they believe any falsehood that is repeated often enough. We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.
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THE GREENS’ PREDICTIVE CLIMATE AND ENERGY RECORD IS THE WORST
The ability to predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.
Climate doomsters have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – every very-scary climate prediction, of the ~80 they have made since 1970, has FAILED TO HAPPEN.
“Rode and Fischbeck, professor of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/the-risks-of-communicating-extreme-climate-forecasts/
By the end of 2020, the climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 times. At 50:50 odds for each prediction, that is like flipping a coin 48 times and losing every time! The probability of that being mere random stupidity is 1 in 281 trillion! It’s not just global warming scientists being stupid.
These climate doomsters have not been telling the truth – they displayed a dishonest bias in their analyses that caused these extremely improbable falsehoods, these frauds.
The global warming alarmists have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – they have been 100% wrong about every scary climate prediction – so nobody should continue to believe them.
The radical greens have NO credibility, make that NEGATIVE credibility – their core competence is propaganda, the fabrication of false alarm.
The alleged global warming crisis is a decades-old scam that is past its due date – as global cooling happens and people freeze, even the most obtuse warmists will realize they have been conned.
Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.
Calgary
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About the Author – Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.) Queen’s U, M.Eng. U of Alberta
Recommended AGAINST the Covid-19 lockdown on 21&22March2020.
Highlighted the significant risks of the experimental Pfizer and Moderna Covid-19 mRNA injections and the high risk-low reward of these injections to under-65’s and especially to schoolchildren.
Safeguarded 300,000 Calgarians from probable death by intervening to shut down the Mazeppa sour gas project; MacRae was honoured by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Authored ~12 papers since 2002 that prove catastrophic human-made global warming is a false crisis, and intermittent green energy is not a practical solution.
Co-authored a 2015 paper on Excess Winter Mortality entitled “Cold Weather Kills 20 Times As Many People As Hot Weather”.
Advocated since 2002 against the false fraudulent claims of leftist extremists that have cost Alberta and Canada over $120 billion in lost oil revenue.
Wrote the competent Energy Policy for the Wild Rose Party, rejecting the destructive Stelmach Royalty changes.
Initiated the New Oilsands Royalty Terms and the New Oilsands Tax Terms implemented by the Klein PC’s and the Feds and also the reduction of Syncrude production costs from $18 to $12 per barrel.
Incorporated these initiatives into a comprehensive strategy for Syncrude, which was implemented and was instrumental in the successful growth of Syncrude and the Alberta oil sands industry.
Result: $250 billion capital investment in Alberta and 500,000 new jobs created in Canada. Canada became the 5th largest oil producer in the world, the largest foreign supplier of energy to the USA and the strongest economy of the G8 countries. ~80% of that oil production is from Alberta.
Tropical Hot Spot Research 