Author: Red Nek Engineer

Invalidating the EPA’s Endangerment Finding

Authors’ Comments on their Two Research Reports:

On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot” & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, Abridged Research Report, August 2016, and

On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot” & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, Abridged Research Report, April 2017, Second Edition

On April 29, 2017, TWTW stated the following:

“Revised Paper by Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo: In his testimony, Christy discusses the simple statistical model used in the August {2016} paper by Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo. At the time of Christy’s testimony, the paper was undergoing revision and made stronger {Emphasis Added}. The paper has been reviewed by several experts in relevant sciences and statistics.”

The authors would like to clarify the situation; two separate and distinct research activities were carried out, each culminating in a separately peer reviewed research report. They were each published simultaneously on many different web sites, but 7 months apart. Importantly, there have been no revisions to either research report.

Both research efforts set out to test for the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot” and the Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding. Both dealt carefully and properly with econometric simultaneous equation parameter estimation issues in the two separate structural analyses that were carried out. And, both efforts involved the same three authors. Each analyzed the same Tropical, Contiguous U.S. and Global Temperature data sets.

“The objective of this research was to determine whether or not a straightforward application of the “proper mathematical methods” would support EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant. Stated simply, their claim is that GAST is primarily a function of four explanatory variables: Atmospheric CO2 Levels (CO2), Solar Activity (SA), Volcanic Activity (VA), and a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.)”

However, the model explanatory variables used in the two separate research activities were very different. Readers should recall frequent debates among climate scientists as to which Natural Factor explanatory variable was most important – solar or oceanic/ENSO activity. The first research effort focused on testing the explanatory power of using just ENSO variables (i.e., specifically MEI related variables) and volcanic activity and was publicly released as the August 2016 Peer Reviewed report.

The Peer Reviewed Second Edition, publicly released in April 2017, explicitly included all three Explanatory variables, that is, solar, volcanic and oceanic/ENSO activity. From a purely statistical analysis standpoint, the results were invariably excellent in both modeling exercises.

The temperature data measurements that were analyzed were taken by many different entities using balloons, satellites, buoys and various land based techniques. Needless to say, if regardless of data source, the structural analysis results are the same, the analysis findings should be considered highly credible. The fact that two separate research efforts came to the same conclusions implies that the findings should be considered quite robust.

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Press Release and Research Report “On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot” & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding: April 24, 2017

As a prelude to the Press release and Research Report, I have chosen to post the introduction on the press release and significance of this research report by Dr. Alan Carlin, a report reviewer and Retired Senior Analyst and manager EPA from his web site.

Second Edition of path breaking Research Report Further Shows the Scientific Invalidity of Climate Alarmism

Despite Saturday’s so-called “March for Science,” the almost simultaneous release of a second edition of a Research Report showing the exact opposite of what some of the marchers claim to be the conclusions of climate science has brought home the Orwellian reality that the marchers have gotten their claims concerning what the science says exactly backwards.  The Climate March website says their forces of “The Resistance” won’t tolerate “institutions that try to “skew, ignore, misuse or interfere with science.” If the marchers really support science, they should be supporting climate skeptics, not the climate alarmists. How Orwellian can you get? The science is clear.

The authors of a path breaking August 2016 research report released today a Second Edition of their Research Report.  The conclusions disproving the validity of USEPA’s three lines of evidence for their 2009 Endangerment Finding for Greenhouse Gases and very clearly demonstrating the lack of a statistically significant impact of increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 on global and tropical temperatures remain the same. However, the analysis process utilized is both more elegant and easier to understand. It demonstrates that Natural Factors involving solar, volcanic and oceanic activity fully explain the Earth’s tropospheric and surface temperatures. And, that CO2 plays no significant role.

Skeptics have long argued that fluctuations in global temperatures are not primarily due to human-caused emissions of CO2 from using fossil fuels to improve their lives, and have generally attributed these fluctuations to changes in the sun, our source of heat and light.  The importance of solar, and other natural factor fluctuations has now been shown to be the case despite many tens of billions of taxpayer dollars spent by the US and other governments to try to disprove the obvious and mislead the public on this central scientific issue in the climate debate.

So the new Edition does not contradict any of the conclusions reached last fall, but now provides a more understandable and common sense explanation for fluctuations in global and tropical temperatures. Nothing that U.S. EPA, the UN, or even President Obama have done, or even could have done, could have had significant effect on the Earth’s temperature.  The effect of their attempts to do so will be to line the pockets of “renewable” energy sources at the expense primarily of the less well-off the both in the US and the rest of the world and of decreasing the productivity of green plants and humans by discouraging the use of fossil fuel energy and thus CO2 emissions.

Previously climate skeptics have raised myriad reasons why reducing human CO2 emissions would have little effect on global temperatures despite arguments based on elaborate climate models that had never been proper validated. These Climate Models invariably predict that higher CO2 levels will lead to higher temperatures. The Research Report 12 separate times invalidates this assumption. It robustly invalidates the argument that reductions in CO2 emissions as advocated by the UN and the Obama Administration will have statistically significant (i.e., different from zero) effect on global temperatures. So they are a total waste of taxpayer and ratepayer dollars. And, very harmful to job creation, economic growth and the poor.

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PRESS RELEASE:

Abridged Research Report Second Edition, April 2017

A just released peer reviewed Climate Science Research Report has proven that it is all but certain that EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant is totally false.

All research was done pro bono ICECAP NOTE: as has been the case with the numerous comment filings, letters, editorials, research reports and Amici briefs to the DC Circuit Court and SCOTUS. The team of scientists, economists and climatologists are not in for profit but we truly care about our environment and its inhabitants. We apply the seemingly forgotten scientific method and utilize rigorous statistical analysis techniques to determine the validity of politically driven claims, frivolously accepted and used to justify policies that force those who can least afford it to ride the Green Express Train to Energy Poverty.

This research failed to find that the steadily rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 14 temperature data sets that were analyzed. The tropospheric and surface temperature data measurements that were analyzed were taken by many different entities using balloons, satellites, buoys and various land based techniques. Needless to say, if regardless of data source, the analysis results are the same, the analysis findings should be considered highly credible.

The analysis results invalidate EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, including the climate models that EPA has claimed can be relied upon for policy analysis purposes. Moreover, these research results clearly demonstrate that once the solar, volcanic and oceanic activity, that is, natural factor, impacts on temperature data are accounted for, there is no “record setting” warming to be concerned about. In fact, there is no Natural Factor Adjusted Warming at all. The authors of this report claim that there is no published, peer reviewed, statistically valid proof that past increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations have caused the officially reported rising, even claimed record setting temperatures. And, EPA’s Climate Models fail to meet this test.

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From the Second Edition Report:

ABSTRACT

The objective of this research was to determine whether or not a straightforward application of the “proper mathematical methods” would support EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant. These analysis results would appear to leave very, very little doubt but that EPA’s claim of a Tropical Hot Spot (THS), caused by rising atmospheric CO2 levels, simply does not exist in the real world. Also critically important, this analysis failed to find that the steadily rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 14 temperature data sets that were analyzed.

The temperature data measurements that were analyzed were taken by many different entities using balloons, satellites, buoys and various land based techniques. Needless to say, if regardless of data source, the structural analysis results are the same, the analysis findings should be considered highly credible.

Thus, the analysis results invalidate each of the Three Lines of Evidence in its CO2 Endangerment Finding. Once EPA’s THS assumption is invalidated, it is obvious why the climate models EPA claims can be relied upon for policy analysis purposes, are also invalid. And, these results clearly demonstrate – 14 separate and distinct times in fact— that once just the Natural Factor impacts on temperature data are accounted for, there is no “record setting” warming to be concerned about. In fact, there is no Natural Factor Adjusted Warming at all. Moreover, over the time period analyzed, these natural factors have involved historically quite normal solar, volcanic and ENSO activity. At this point, there is no statistically valid proof that past increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations have caused the officially reported rising, even claimed record setting temperatures.

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Icecap Note:

To not be able to invalidate the hypothesis (commonly called prove) that CO2 was a major (i.e., statistically significant) driver of changes in global temperatures, what are called simultaneous equation parameter estimation techniques must be applied. If CO2 in fact does not have a significant impact, it is rather straightforward to test how much of the earth’s temperature variation can be explained by natural factors (e.g., solar, oceanic and volcanic activity.) It turns out that once these natural factor impacts are removed, the NF Adjusted Temperatures have a flat trend and bear no statistical significant relationship to CO2. These analysis results were found for 14 separate topical and global temperature data sets. This research finding leaves no room for CO2 to have any measurable impact on global atmospheric and surface temperatures. The scientific method requires that such analyses findings be fully reproducible.  And, these are.

Unlike most peer (pal) reviewed papers, the authors made available to our peer reviewers and anyone (including you) access to the data sets. Also a blueprint to the methods was explicitly described in the Preface and a full set of summary statistical results in the report. Anyone with knowledge of the proper use of regression analysis involving simultaneous equation systems can fully understand and replicate this work. However reading the Preface would lend those without simultaneous modeling experience, the ability to fully understand the findings of this work.

The Undersigned Agree with the Conclusions of this Report:

Dr. Alan Carlin
Retired Senior Analyst and manager, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.
Author, Environmentalism Gone Mad, Stairway Press, 2015.
Ph.D., Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA.
BS, Physics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA.

Dr. Theodore R. Eck
Ph.D., Economics, Michigan State University
M.A, Economics, University of Michigan
Fulbright Professor of International Economics
Former Chief Economist of Amoco Corp. and Exxon Venezuela
Advisory Board of the Gas Technology Institute and Energy Intelligence Group

Dr. Craig D. Idso
Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
Ph.D., Geography, Arizona State University
M.S., Agronomy, University of Nebraska, Lincoln
B.S., Geography, Arizona State University

Dr. Richard A. Keen
Instructor Emeritus of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado
Ph.D., Geography/Climatology, University of Colorado
M.S., Astro-Geophysics, University of Colorado
B.A., Astronomy, Northwestern University

Dr. Anthony R. Lupo
IPCC Expert Reviewer
Professor, Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri
Ph.D., Atmospheric Science, Purdue University
M.S., Atmospheric Science, Purdue University

Dr. Thomas P. Sheahen
Ph.D., Physics, M.I.T.
B.S., Physics, M.I.T.

Dr. George T. Wolff
Former Chair EPA’s Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee
Ph.D., Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University
M.S., Meteorology, New York University
B.S., Chemical Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology

This Pro Bono Research Is Dedicated to the Memory of Dr. William M. Gray (Emeritus) Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

The authors of this research are very much interested in knowing the names and credentials of individuals who would like to add their names to the list of scientists whose names may appear in the report under the following statement:  “The Undersigned Agree with the Conclusions of this Report.”

After reading and thinking about this research report, if you would like to have your name added to the list, please send your name and credentials in a fashion similar to those listed in the August 2016 Research Report.

Please send this information to the following dedicated email address: thsresearch@aol.com.

On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot “& The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding

Research Report Executive Summary

Background

On December 15, 2009, EPA issued its Green House Gas (GHG) Endangerment Finding, which has driven very significant and costly regulations beginning with CO2. Focusing primarily on the time period since 1950, EPA’s Endangerment Finding predicated on Three Lines of Evidence, claims that Higher CO2 Emissions have led to dangerously Higher Global Average Surface Temperatures.

Relevance of this Research

The assumption of the existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot (THS)” is critical to all Three Lines of Evidence in EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding.

Stated simply, first, the THS is claimed to be a fingerprint or signature of atmospheric and Global Average Surface Temperatures (GAST) warming caused by increasing GHG/CO2 concentrations[1]. The proper test for the existence of the THS in the real world is very simple. Are the slopes of the three temperature trend lines (upper & lower troposphere and surface) all positive, statistically significant and do they have the proper top down rank order?

Second, higher atmospheric CO2 and other GHGs concentrations are claimed to have been the primary cause of the claimed record setting GAST over the past 50 plus years.

Third, the THS assumption is imbedded in all of the climate models that EPA still relies upon in its policy analysis supporting, for example, its Clean Power Plan–recently put on hold by a Supreme Court Stay. These climate models are also critical to EPA’s Social Cost of Carbon estimates used to justify a multitude of regulations across many U.S. Government agencies.

Objectives of the Research

The objective of this research was to determine whether or not a straightforward application of the proper mathematical methods would support EPA’s basic claim that CO2 is a pollutant. Stated simply, their claim is that GAST is primarily a function of four explanatory variables: Atmospheric CO2 Levels, Solar Activity, Volcanic Activity, and a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.)

The first objective of this research was to determine, based on the very considerable relevant and credible tropical temperature data evidence, whether or not the assumed THS actually exists in the real world.

The second related objective was to determine whether, adjusting ONLY for ENSO impacts, anything at all unusual with the Earth’s temperatures seemed to be occurring in the Tropics, Contiguous U.S. or Globally. It is a well-known meteorological fact that, other things equal, El Ninos lead to a global scale warming and La Ninas a global scale cooling, whose magnitudes are related to their ENSO strengths.

The third objective was to determine whether the rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations alone can be shown to have had a statistically significant impact on the trend slopes of often –publically -quoted temperature data.

It should be noted that in carrying out this research project, every effort was made to minimize complaints that this analysis was performed on so-called “cherry picked temperature data”. To avoid even the appearance of such activity, the authors divided up responsibilities, where Dr. Christy was tasked to provide temperature data sets that he felt were most appropriate and credible for testing the THS as well as the two other EPA Endangerment Finding hypotheses. All told, thirteen temperature time series (9 Tropics, 1 Contiguous U.S. and 3 Global) were analyzed in this research. The econometric analysis was done by Jim Wallace & Associates, LLC, and when completed, cross checked by the two other authors as well as seven reviewers.

Findings of the Research

These analysis results would appear to leave very, very little doubt but that EPA’s claim of a Tropical Hot Spot (THS), caused by rising atmospheric CO2 levels, simply does not exist in the real world. Also critically important, even on an all-other-things-equal basis, this analysis failed to find that the steadily rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 13 critically important temperature time series data analyzed.

Thus, the analysis results invalidate each of the Three Lines of Evidence in its CO2 Endangerment Finding. Once EPA’s THS assumption is invalidated, it is obvious why the climate models they claim can be relied upon, are also invalid. And, these results clearly demonstrate–13 times in fact–that once just the ENSO impacts on temperature data are accounted for, there is no “record setting” warming to be concerned about. In fact, there is no ENSO-Adjusted Warming at all. These natural ENSO impacts are shown in this research to involve both changes in solar activity and the well-known 1977 Pacific Climate Shift.

Moreover, on an all-other-things-equal basis, the research strongly implies that there is no statistically valid proof that past increases in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have caused the officially reported rising, even claimed record setting temperatures.

Finally, regarding the credibility of these research findings, the temperature data measurements that were analyzed were taken by many different entities using balloons, satellites, buoys and various land based techniques. Needless to say, if regardless of data source, the results are the same, the analysis findings should be considered highly credible.

PDF of this Executive Summary here.

See full abridged report here. The authors and reviewers all highly recommend that you read the preface which explains the methodology.

Study Authors & Reviewers

Authors

Dr. James P. Wallace III

Jim Wallace & Associates, LLC

50 Years Mathematical Modelling Team Management

Ph.D., Economics, Minor in Engineering, Brown University

M.S., Mechanical Engineering, Brown University

B.S., Aeronautical Engineering, Brown University

Dr. John R. Christy

Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science, Alabama State Climatologist and Director of the Earth Science System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Lead Author, Contributing Author and Reviewer of United Nations IPCC assessments.

Awarded NASA’s Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement.

Elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society in 2002

Joseph S. D’Aleo

CCM, AMS Fellow

BS, MS Meteorology University of Wisconsin

ABD NYU, Honorary Doctorate VSC

45 years operational and research meteorology

Reviewers  

Dr. Alan Carlin
Retired Senior Analyst and manager, US Environmental Protection Agency,DC.
Author, Environmentalism Gone Mad, Stairway Press, 2015.
Ph.D., Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA.
BS, Physics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA.

Dr. Harold H. Doiron

Retired VP-Engineering Analysis and Test Division, InDyne, Inc.

Ex-NASA JSC, Aerospace Consultant

B.S. Physics, University of Louisiana – Lafayette

M.S., Ph.D., Mechanical Engineering, University of Houston

 

Dr. Theodore R. Eck

Ph.D., Economics, Michigan State University

M.A, Economics, University of Michigan

Fulbright Professor of International Economics

Former Chief Economist of Amoco Corp. and Exxon Venezuela

Advisory Board of the Gas Technology Institute and Energy Intelligence Group

 

Dr. Craig D. Idso

Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change

Ph.D., Geography, Arizona State University

M.S., Agronomy, University of Nebraska, Lincoln

B.S., Geography, Arizona State University

 

Dr. Richard A. Keen

Instructor Emeritus of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado

Ph.D., Geography/Climatology, University of Colorado

M.S., Astro-Geophysics, University of Colorado

B.A., Astronomy, Northwestern University

 

Dr. Anthony R. Lupo

IPCC Expert Reviewer

Professor, Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri

Ph.D., Atmospheric Science, Purdue University

M.S., Atmospheric Science, Purdue University

 

Dr. Thomas P. Sheahen

Ph.D., Physics, M.I.T.

B.S., Physics, M.I.T.

 

Dr. George T. Wolff

Former Chair EPA’s Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee

Ph.D., Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University

M.S., Meteorology, New York University

B.S., Chemical Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology

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Research Report Endorsement

 The authors of this research are very much interested in knowing the names and credentials of individuals who would like to add their names to the list of scientists whose names already appear in the report under the following statement:

“The Undersigned Agree with the Conclusions of this Report.”

After reading and thinking about this research report, if you would like to have your name added to such a list, please send your name and credentials in a fashion similar to those listed in the report.

Please send this information to the following dedicated email address: frostdoc@aol.com

[1] See U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1, Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere – Understanding and Reconciling Differences, Chapter 1, p. 18-19, https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/vr0603.pdf

The individuals asking to their names added that have very substantial relevant credentials are listed below:

Dr. Alan Carlin

Retired Senior Analyst and manager, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

Author, Environmentalism Gone Mad, Stairway Press, 2015.

Ph.D., Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA.

BS, Physics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA.

 

Dr. Ruth F. Weiner

Adjunct Professor of Nuclear Engineering, University of Michigan

Member, USNRC Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste

Member EPA National Air Pollution Control Techniques Advisory

Ph. D (chemistry) The Johns Hopkins University

B.S., M.S. (physics) University of Illinois

 

Joseph C. Gentry, PE

BS ChE Auburn University; MBA University of Houston

Vice-President, Technology and Engineering

GTC Technology US, LLC

900 Threadneedle, Suite 800

Houston, TX.  77079 USA

 

Dr. Edward M. Huff, Senior Scientist (Retired) Computational Sciences,

NASA Ames Research Center

Ph.D. Experimental (Mathematical) Psychology, Texas Christian University

M.S. Experimental Psychology, University of Buffalo B.A. Psychology, Queens College