Category: Uncategorized

Can We ‘Trust the Science’?

Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

We have been lectured to ‘trust the science’ ever changing throughout the COVID threats. Increasingly evidence grows that the ‘science’ details was made up as it goes and used as a cudgel for political ends including power and policy advancement.

The same has been seen in recent decades as the environmentalists and governments sought to build the case to demonize carbon dioxide and fossil fuels. The goal as One World Governance – referred to as the New World Order.

The common enemy of humanity is man. In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill.”
– The Club of Rome Premier environmental think-tank and consultants to the United Nations.

“We’ve got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy.”
– Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation

No matter if the science of global warming is all phony…climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.”
– Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment

The UN IPCC kicked it into high gear in 1995.  Ben Santer was appointed the convening Lead-author of Chapter 8 of the 1995 IPCC Report titled “Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes.” In that position, Santer created the first clear example of the IPCC manipulation of science for a political agenda. He used his position to establish the headline that humans were a factor in global warming by altering the meaning of what was agreed by the committee as a whole at the draft meeting in Madrid.

The consensus of the large group of scientists assigned with assessing the proposed effects agreed in their summary of the main chapter of the report was:“None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in Greenhouse gases.”

Santer as Lead Author replaced it with:“There is evidence of an emerging pattern of climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol… from the geographical, seasonal and vertical patterns of temperature change… These results point toward a human influence on global climate.”

It was just a start of central planning and control. This was openly admitted by politicians and lead UN IPCC

“The future is to be [One] World Government with central planning by the United Nations. Fear of environmental crises – whether real or not – is expected to lead to compliance.” – Former Washington State Democratic Governor Dixy Lee Ray

‘Our aim is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to change the global economic system… This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model, for the first time in human history.” In simpler terms, replace free enterprise, entrepreneurial capitalism with UN-controlled centralized, One World government and economic control.” – UN Climate Chief Christiana Figueres

AOC’s chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti in May admitted that the Green New Deal was not conceived as an effort to deal with climate change, but instead a “how-do-you-change-the-entire economy thing” – nothing more than a thinly veiled socialist takeover of the U.S. economy.

“One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. “It is not. It is actually about how “we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth.” – IPCC official Ottmar Edenhofer

AOC’s chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti in May admitted that the Green New Deal was not conceived as an effort to deal with climate change, but instead a “how-do-you-change-the-entire economy thing” – nothing more than a thinly veiled socialist takeover of the U.S. economy.

Above we have shown in their own words how the indoctrination of the world on the alleged perils of global warming evolved.

Virtually every month and year we see stories in the once reliable media and from formerly unbiased data centers that proclaim the warmest such period in the entire record back to 1895 or earlier (often 1850). They claim the warming due to greenhouse gases is causing more extremes of weather and more deaths.

In the ADDENDUM to the Research Report entitled: On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, Abridged Research Report, Dr. James P. Wallace III, Dr. (Honorary) Joseph S. D’Aleo, Dr. Craig D. Idso, June 2017 (here) provided ample evidence that the Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data was invalidated for use in climate modeling and for any other climate change policy analysis purpose.

The conclusive findings of this research are that the three Global Average Surface Temperature data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever – despite current claims of record setting warming.

That is made even more true given that 71% of the earth’s surface is ocean and the only ocean data prior to the satellite era began in the 1970s was limited to ship routes mainly near land in the northern hemisphere. According to overseers of the instrumental temperature data, the Southern Hemisphere record is “mostly made up”. This is due to an extremely limited number of available measurements both historically and even presently from Antarctica to the equatorial regions. 

In 1978, the New York Times reported there was too little temperature data from the Southern Hemisphere to draw any reliable conclusions. The report, prepared by German, Japanese and American specialists, appeared in the Dec. 15 issue of Nature, the British journal and stated that “Data from the Southern Hemisphere, particularly south of latitude 30 south, are so meager that reliable conclusions are not possible,” the report says. “Ships travel on well-established routes so that vast areas of ocean, are simply not traversed by ships at all, and even those that do, may not return weather data on route.”

In 1981, NASA’s James Hansen et al reported that “Problems in obtaining a global temperature history are due to the uneven station distribution, with the Southern Hemisphere and ocean areas poorly represented,” – – – – (Science, 28 August 1981, Volume 213, Number 4511(link))

In 1989, the New York Times admitted the US data released from NOAA failed to show a warming trend since 1895. Even in 1999, the temperature still trailed 1934 – James Hansen noted “The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year 1934.”

This finding was amplified recently by MIT graduate Dr. Mototaka Nakamura in a 2020 book on “the sorry state of climate science” titled Confessions of a climate scientist: the global warming hypothesis is an unproven hypothesis.

He wrote: “The supposed measuring of global average temperatures from 1890 has been based on thermometer readouts barely covering 5 per cent of the globe until the satellite era began 40-50 years ago. We do not know how global climate has changed in the past century, all we know is some limited regional climate changes, such as in Europe, North America and parts of Asia.”

My philosophy when I taught meteorology and climatology in college was to show my students how to think – not what to think. As Socrates said, “Education is the kindling of a flame, not the filling of a vessel.” I told my students that data is king, and models are only useful tools. Any model’s output or any theory needed to be examined and validated using data, and must always used with caution.  

Claims about drastic runaway warming and increasing extremes have been fact checked and debunked here.

NASA imagery has shown CO2 is a plant fertilizer that has sparked mass global greening of the earth and huge increases in crop yields.

It has a major positive impact. The Sahara desert has shrunk 8% since the 1980s.

Dr. Will Happer, Princeton Physicist talks about the great benefits of CO2 to the biosphere and to all of humanity, says we are coming out of a CO2 drought and humanity would benefit from CO2 being 2 to 3 times higher.  (https://youtu.be/U-9UlF8hkhs)

Dr Patrick Moore, ecologist and co-founder of Greenpeace says we are coming out of a CO2 drought and humanity would benefit from CO2 being 2 to 3 times higher. (https://youtu.be/sXxktLAsBPo)

The negative impact claims are greatly exaggerated. Claims about drastic runaway warming and increasing extremes have been fact checked and debunked here.

CARBON DIOXIDE IS THE GAS OF LIFE

The Social Cost of Carbon are negative – it is a benefit. We pump it into greenhouses to make the plants grow. We need more not less. The real existential threat comes would come from radical environmentalism and their prescribed remedies. The economy in every country that has moved down an extreme green path the past 2 decades have seen skyrocketing energy costs – some 3 times our 2020 levels. Now our country chose to follow them down the rabbit hole.

The world is not ready for the so-called renewables and we are seeing clear global evidence that the push away from clean natural gas and oil and nuclear has already started a super inflation era that is already hurting all the world’s businesses and people.

This is because renewables are unreliable as the wind doesn’t always blow nor the sunshine. We saw that in Europe the last 2 decades and Texas in February 2021. And don’t believe the claims that millions of green jobs would result. In Spain, every green job created cost Spain $774,000 in subsidies and resulted in a loss of 2.2 real jobs. Only 1 in 10 green jobs were permanent. Industry left and in Spain unemployment rose to 27.5%. Many households in the countries that have gone green were said to be in “energy poverty” (25% UK, 15% Germany). The elderly are said in winter to be forced to “choose between heating and eating”. Extreme cold already killed 20 times more than heat according to a study of 74 million deaths in 13 countries.

The Chamber of Commerce’s analysis agreed:

U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE’S GLOBAL ENERGY INSTITUTE’S ENERGY ACCOUNTABILITY SERIES 2020

“Candidates for elected office have pledged to ban the very technology that has enabled the boom (and the never thought possible energy independence) – fracking. This raises an important question: what would happen to American jobs and the economy if fracturing was banned? In this report, the Chamber’s Global Energy Institute has undertaken the modeling and analysis to answer that question.

Simply put, a ban on fracking in the United States would be catastrophic for our economy.

Our analysis shows that if such a ban were imposed in 2021, by 2025 it would eliminate 19 million jobs and reduce U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by $7.1 trillion. Job losses in major energy producing states would be immediate and severe; in Texas alone, more than three million jobs would be lost. Tax revenue at the local, state, and federal levels would decline by nearly a combined $1.9 trillion, as the ban cuts off a critical source of funding for schools, first responders, infrastructure, and other critical public services.

Energy prices would also skyrocket under a fracking ban. Natural gas prices would leap by 324 percent, causing household energy bills to more than quadruple. By 2025, motorists would pay twice as much at the pump ($5/gallon).”

We need to IMMEDIATELY reinstate the pipeline, restart drilling and oil and gas production to meet our needs and that of the world instead of relying on predator nation production feeding their terrorist programs.

SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT

By Allan M.R. MacRae, October 20, 2021

The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.

Following are the correct predictions of Allan MacRae and colleagues on:

GLOBAL WARMING ALARMISM

Our scientific predictions are infinitely more accurate than the mainstream narratives, which have been false and baselessly alarmist to date.

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THE CLIMATE AND ENERGY FRAUD

CORRECT CLIMATE AND ENERGY PREDICTIONS FROM 2002

The perfect Trifecta – my work here is done.

In 2002 co-authors Dr Sallie Baliunas, Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian, Dr Tim Patterson, Paleoclimatologist, Carleton, Ottawa and Allan MacRae wrote:

Click to access KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf

1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”

2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”

Allan MacRae published on September 1, 2002, based on a conversation with Dr. Tim Patterson:

3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”

MacRae modified his global cooling prediction in 2013:

3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”

See electroverse.net for extreme-cold events all over our planet.
https://electroverse.net/category/extreme-weather/

https://electroverse.net/category/crop-loss/

This global cooling is primarily solar-induced, driven by the end of very-weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24) and the beginning of very-weak SC25, as I published in 2002 – one year before Theodor Landscheidt’s famous 2003 global cooling prediction.

NEW LITTLE ICE AGE INSTEAD OF GLOBAL WARMING?  
T. Landscheidt, May 1, 2003
http://plasmaresources.com/ozwx/landscheidt/pdf/NewLittleIceAgeInsteadOfGlobalWarming.pdf

Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.

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CORRECT CLIMATE AND ENERGY PREDICTIONS FROM 2013.
Told You So, 8 Years Ago.

AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA, BRITISH UNDERSECRETARY FOR ENERGY
By Allan MacRae, October 31, 2013
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/31/blind-faith-in-climate-models/#comment-1130954

[excerpt]

So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.

You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.

MacRae’s 2013 open letter was verified in 2021, with extreme cold winter forecasts and a green-energy-crippled electrical grid in Britain and Germany:

EUROPE IS SWITCHING BACK TO COAL TO SURVIVE BLEAK WINTER
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/26/europe-is-switching-back-to-coal-to-survive-bleak-winter/


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Other global cooling forecasts:

PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA: “WE ENTERED THE ‘MODERN’ GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM ON JUNE 8, 2020”
August 30, 2020 Cap Allon
https://electroverse.net/we-entered-the-modern-grand-solar-minimum-on-june-8-2020/

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23328940.2020.1796243

A new editorial paper has landed from Professor Valentina Zharkova, entitled: “Modern Grand Solar Minimum will Lead to Terrestrial Cooling“. Published on August 4, 2020, Zharkova’s latest analysis suggests that June 8, 2020 was the date on which we entered the Modern (Eddy) Grand Solar Minimum.
The opening paragraph reads:
“In this editorial I will demonstrate with newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.”

Dr Valentina Zharkova is mentioned above – her co-author Dr Yelena Popova is interviewed here about their 2015 paper predicting global cooling, starting circa 2020.

Global cooling IS happening now, as we correctly predicted in 2002, driven by low solar activity at the end of SC24.
Many recent extreme cold events are listed in my March 2021 paper (below) and many more have occurred worldwide since publication – see Electoverse.net

DOES MACHINE LEARNING RECONSTRUCT MISSING SUNSPOTS AND FORECAST A NEW SOLAR MINIMUM?

V.M. Velasco Herrera, W. Soon, D.R. Legates, August 1, 2021
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0273117721002465

[excerpt]
In addition, our ML model forecasts a new phase of extended solar minima that began prior to Sunspot Cycle 24 (ca. 2008–2019) and will persist until Sunspot Cycle 27 (ca. 2050 or so). 

Drs. Herrera, Soon and Legates in 2021 used a novel analysis and reached a similar conclusion, for cooling from ~2008 to ~2050. I published that there was a period of global cooling that started in ~2008 at the end of Solar Cycle 23, and this cooling ended circa 2013.

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Expert meteorologist Joe D’Aleo and I co-authored this paper about the huge crop failures across the Great Plains of North America in 2019.

THE REAL CLIMATE CRISIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING, IT IS COOLING, AND IT MAY HAVE ALREADY STARTED
By Allan M.R. MacRae and Joseph D’Aleo, October 27, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/27/the-real-climate-crisis-is-not-global-warming-it-is-cooling-and-it-may-have-already-started/

It is notable that crop planting has occurred one month later-than-usual in the North-central growing areas of North America in both 2018 and 2019. While warm summer weather saved the 2018 crop, in 2019 the Northern corn and soybean harvests were devastated by a cold summer and early cold weather. In 2019, there were many more record U.S. all-time daily low temperatures than record highs. 

Severe flooding in China in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has destroyed crops and caused major concerns about food supply.

The following two papers published in 2020 and 2021 explain the twin frauds of Climate and Covid – scams that are promoted by the same leftist groups for financial and political gain.

THE CATASTROPHIC ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (CAGW) AND THE HUMANMADE CLIMATE CHANGE CRISES ARE PROVED FALSE
By Allan M.R. MacRae, January 10, 2020
https://thsresearch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/the-catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming-cagw-and-the-humanmade-climate-change-crises-are-proved-false.pdf
­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­“
There are numerous highly credible observations that falsify the CAGW hypothesis and many are listed herein, but as Albert Einstein famously stated “One would be enough”.

CLIMATE CHANGE, COVID-19, AND THE GREAT RESET 
A Climate And Energy Primer For Politicians And Media
By Allan M.R. MacRae, March 21, 2021.  Update 1e May 8, 2021.

https://thsresearch.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/climate-change-covid-19-and-the-great-reset-update-1e-readonly.docx

[excerpt]

The same leftist groups concocted and promoted the global warming fraud and the Covid-19 lockdown scam, for political and financial gain. Then these groups linked the two frauds, stating “to solve Covid-19 we have to solve Climate Change” – utterly false and foolish, not even plausible enough to be specious. Then these same groups proposed their Final Solution, the “Great Reset”, a Chinese Communist Party style dictatorship, a centrally-controlled economy where we live like poor slaves, lorded over by our wealthy political masters.

The tragic reality is that the twin frauds of Climate-and-Covid have been accepted by most politicians. Some have covertly or overtly embraced extreme-left politics, and others are so simple-minded and gullible that they believe any falsehood that is repeated often enough. We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.
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THE GREENS’ PREDICTIVE CLIMATE AND ENERGY RECORD IS THE WORST


The ability to predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.

Climate doomsters have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – every very-scary climate prediction, of the ~80 they have made since 1970, has FAILED TO HAPPEN.

“Rode and Fischbeck, professor of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/the-risks-of-communicating-extreme-climate-forecasts/

By the end of 2020, the climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 times. At 50:50 odds for each prediction, that is like flipping a coin 48 times and losing every time! The probability of that being mere random stupidity is 1 in 281 trillion! It’s not just global warming scientists being stupid.

These climate doomsters have not been telling the truth – they displayed a dishonest bias in their analyses that caused these extremely improbable falsehoods, these frauds.

The global warming alarmists have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record – they have been 100% wrong about every scary climate prediction – so nobody should continue to believe them.

The radical greens have NO credibility, make that NEGATIVE credibility – their core competence is propaganda, the fabrication of false alarm.

The alleged global warming crisis is a decades-old scam that is past its due date – as global cooling happens and people freeze, even the most obtuse warmists will realize they have been conned.

Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.

Calgary

_________________________________

About the Author – Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.) Queen’s U, M.Eng. U of Alberta

Recommended AGAINST the Covid-19 lockdown on 21&22March2020.

Highlighted the significant risks of the experimental Pfizer and Moderna Covid-19 mRNA injections and the high risk-low reward of these injections to under-65’s and especially to schoolchildren.

Safeguarded 300,000 Calgarians from probable death by intervening to shut down the Mazeppa sour gas project; MacRae was honoured by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Authored ~12 papers since 2002 that prove catastrophic human-made global warming is a false crisis, and intermittent green energy is not a practical solution.

Co-authored a 2015 paper on Excess Winter Mortality entitled “Cold Weather Kills 20 Times As Many People As Hot Weather”.

Advocated since 2002 against the false fraudulent claims of leftist extremists that have cost Alberta and Canada over $120 billion in lost oil revenue.

Wrote the competent Energy Policy for the Wild Rose Party, rejecting the destructive Stelmach Royalty changes.

Initiated the New Oilsands Royalty Terms and the New Oilsands Tax Terms implemented by the Klein PC’s and the Feds and also the reduction of Syncrude production costs from $18 to $12 per barrel.

Incorporated these initiatives into a comprehensive strategy for Syncrude, which was implemented and was instrumental in the successful growth of Syncrude and the Alberta oil sands industry.

Result: $250 billion capital investment in Alberta and 500,000 new jobs created in Canada. Canada became the 5th largest oil producer in the world, the largest foreign supplier of energy to the USA and the strongest economy of the G8 countries. ~80% of that oil production is from Alberta.

Texas blackouts warning to Biden and all of us: Renewables do play a role in grid problems

Common-sense has already lost to political considerations — and people across Texas and the Great Plains are paying the price.

Jason Hayes Opinion contributor

It’s not just a cold front. Over a decade of misguided green energy policies are wreaking havoc in Texas and the lower Midwest right now — despite non-stop claims to the contrary.

The immediate cause for the power outages in Texas this week was extreme cold and insufficient winterization of the state’s energy systems. But there’s still no escaping the fact that, for years, Texas regulators have favored the construction of heavily subsidized renewable energy sources over more reliable electricity generation. These policies have pushed the state away from nuclear and coal and now millions in Texas and the Great Plains states are learning just how badly exposed they are when extreme weather hits.

Renewable’s defenders retort that Texas’ wind resource is “reliably unreliable.” Translation: It can’t be counted on when it’s needed most. The state has spent tens of billions of dollars on wind turbines that don’t work when millions of people desperately need electricity. As the cold weather has gotten worse, half the state’s wind generation has sat frozen and immobile. Where wind provided 42% of the state’s electricity on Feb. 7, it fell to 8% on Feb.11. 

The Texas power outage was inevitable

Unsurprisingly, the failure of wind has sparked a competing narrative that fossil fuel plants were the real cause of power outages. This claim can be quickly dispelled with a look at data from ERCOT, the state’s electricity regulator. Even though the extreme cold had frozen cooling systems on coal plants and natural gas pipelines, the state’s coal plants still upped their output by 47% in response to increasing demand. Natural gas plants across the state increased their output by an amazing 450%. Fossil fuels have done yeoman’s work to make up for wind’s reliable unreliability.

Sadly, even these herculean efforts weren’t enough. The loss of wind has been compounded by the loss of some natural gas and coal generation, and one nuclear reactor, which experienced a cold-related safety issue and shut down. Things are improving, but rolling power outages are still impacting millions. Had the state invested more heavily in nuclear plants instead of pushing wind power, Texans would have ample, reliable, safe, emission-free electricity powering their lives through the cold. Instead, over 20 have died.

This sad outcome was inevitable. Renewable energy sources have taken off in popularity largely because of state mandates and federal subsidies. As they’ve become more popular, reliable energy like nuclear power and coal have felt the squeeze.

Last year, wind overtook coal as Texas’ second largest source of electricity generation. The most recent federal data indicates that, in October last year, natural gas provided 52% of the Lonestar state’s electricity, while wind generated about 22%, coal kicked in 17%, and nuclear added 8%. The rise of wind means unreliable energy is increasingly relied on for the energy grid.

Texas rolled by winter storms:A dispatch from my frozen living room

This won’t be the last power crisis

The Texas energy crisis isn’t a one-off, either. The same thing happened in 2019 when Michigan endured the Polar Vortex. Extreme cold paired with limited natural gas supplies and non-existent renewable energy. Residents all received text messages warning them to reduce their thermostats to 65° or less to stave off a system wide failure.

California’s rolling blackouts last summer are another example. Dwindling solar generation in late afternoon, shuttered nuclear plants, and insufficient supply from gas plants could not compete with rising energy demands due to extreme heat. 

And then there’s Joe Biden’s $2 trillion promise to wean America off reliable energy. If Biden’s aggressive climate plan is enacted, it will push tens of thousands of wind turbines and millions of solar panels in an expensive effort to achieve net zero emissions from the nation’s electricity sector by 2050. But doing this will only further spread the problems that Texans are currently experiencing.

America can’t go down this foolish road. Common-sense has already lost to political considerations — and people across Texas and the Great Plains are paying the price. They aren’t the first victims, and they certainly won’t be the last, if politicians continue to push unreliable renewable energy instead of the reliable sources families need to stay warm and live their lives. A green future shouldn’t be this dark.

Jason Hayes is the director of environmental policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. 

Claims including warmest ever month or year are unsupported by data and politically driven fictions

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Virtually every month and year we see stories in the once reliable media and from formerly unbiased data centers that proclaim the warmest such period in the entire record back to 1895 or earlier.

In the ADDENDUM to the Research Report entitled: On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, Abridged Research Report, Dr. James P. Wallace III, Dr. (Honorary) Joseph S. D’Aleo, Dr. Craig D. Idso, June 2017 (here) provided ample evidence that the Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data was invalidated for use in climate modeling and for any other climate change policy analysis purpose.

The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever – despite current claims of record setting warming.

That is made even more true given that 71% of the earth’s surface is ocean and the only ocean data prior to the satellite era began in the 1970s was limited to ship routes mainly near land in the northern hemisphere.

“According to overseers of the long-term instrumental temperature data, the Southern Hemisphere record is “mostly made up”. This is due to an extremely limited number of available measurements both historically and even presently from Antarctica to the equatorial regions. 

In 1981, NASA’s James Hansen et al reported that “Problems in obtaining a global temperature history are due to the uneven station distribution, with the Southern Hemisphere and ocean areas poorly represented,” – – – – (Science, 28 August 1981, Volume 213, Number 4511(link))

In 1978, the New York Times reported there was too little temperature data from the Southern Hemisphere to draw any reliable conclusions. The report, prepared by German, Japanese and American specialists, appeared in the Dec. 15 issue of  Nature, the British journal and stated that “Data from the Southern Hemisphere, particularly south of latitude 30 south, are so meager that reliable conclusions are not possible,” the report says.

“Ships travel on well-established routes so that vast areas of ocean, are simply not traversed by ships at all, and even those that do, may not return weather data on route.

This finding was amplified recently by MIT graduate Dr. Mototaka Nakamura in a book on “the sorry state of climate science” titled Confessions of a climate scientist: the global warming hypothesis is an unproven hypothesis.

He wrote: “The supposed measuring of global average temperatures from 1890 has been based on thermometer readouts barely covering 5 per cent of the globe until the satellite era began 40-50 years ago. We do not know how global climate has changed in the past century, all we know is some limited regional climate changes, such as in Europe, North America and parts of Asia.”  

For the entire record the best data quality was limited to some land areas in North America, Europe and Australia. The vast southern oceans were mainly data void.

Even so, see how few land stations were used in the data bases in the early decades of the data window.

The National Academy of Science recognized this in their first attempt at determining a trend in temperature in the 1970s, which they limited to the Northern Hemisphere land areas. It showed a dramatic warming from the 1800s to around 1940 then a reversal ending in a matching cooling b the late 1970s when even the CIA wrote that the consensus of scientists was that we may be heading towards a dangerous new ice age.

Even as the stations increased in number and coverage, their reliability became a challenge, with many large continents having the percentage of missing months in the station data. That required the data centers to guess the missing data to get a monthly and then annual average. That is done with models.

You may be surprised to see that continues today. This required guesswork allows those whose job is to validate their models the opportunity to make adjustments in ways to confirm their biases. See the initial data regions in September 2018 that were filled in by algorithms. It includes in a large data void region a record warmth assessment (Heller 2018).

In our assessments, we found that each update cooled past years more and more which serves to make over time the trends more consistent with their model scenarios.

Here is the NASA GISS adaption of the NOAA GHCN data. Each update cools the past to make the trend upward more significant.

Note how even in areas with better data, station is adjusted (corrupted) by the analysts to turn a cooling trend into the desired warming. We picked just three of many examples – one in Australia, the second in Iceland and the plot for the state of Maine. 

For Australia, many examples have been uncovered including Darwin and here Amberley. Blue was the original data plot, red is the one after adjustment in Australia.

The NASA GISS plots for the Iceland raw and the adjusted data shows a cycle replaced by a linear warming ramp. The adjusted data was refuted by the Icelandic met department.

NOAAs Maine temperature trend was accessed in 2011 and again after 2013. The first showed no statistically significant trend from 1895 (-0.01F/decade) with the warmest year 1913. The second had a trend of +0.23F/decade with 1913 adjusted down almost 5F.

THE UN’S DATA CHOICE

The UN uses Hadley CRU data, the earliest and thought to be the most reliable and best constructed global data set. It too shows an adjustment down of the past temperatures in later constructions.

Climategate emails exposed the true state of the data bases used to drive global policy decisions. Their own developers and their chief scientist were exposed and forced to acknowledge the data flaws.  Ian ‘Harry’ Harris, the lead CRU climate data programmer and analyst in the ‘Climategate’ emails admitted to “[The] hopeless state of their (CRU) data base. No uniform data integrity, it’s just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they’re found… There are hundreds if not thousands of pairs of dummy stations…and duplicates… Aarrggghhh! There truly is no end in sight. This whole project is SUCH A MESS. No wonder I needed therapy!!”  http://www.di2.nu/foia/HARRY_READ_ME-0.html

The CRU scientist at the center of the Climategate scandal at East Anglia University, Phil Jones after he thought the jig was up, made a candid admission on BBC that his surface temperature data are in such disarray they probably cannot be verified or replicated, that there has been no statistically significant global warming for the last 15 years and it has cooled 0.12C/decade trend from 2002-2009.  Jones specifically disavowed the “science-is-settled” slogan.

Attempting to compile a `global mean temperature’ from such fragmentary, disorganized, error-ridden, ever-changing and geographically unbalanced data is more guesswork than science.

BAD SITING AFTER MODERNIZATION

During recent decades there has been a migration away from old instruments read by trained observers. These instruments were generally in shelters that were properly located over grassy surfaces and away from obstacles to ventilation and heat sources. Today we have many more automated sensors (The MMTS) located on poles cabled to the electronic display in the observer’s home or office or at airports near the runway where the primary mission is aviation safety.

 Pielke and Davey (2005) found a majority of stations, including climate stations in eastern Colorado, did not meet WMO requirements for proper siting. They extensively documented poor siting and land-use change issues in numerous peer-reviewed papers, many summarized in the landmark paper Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature trends (2007).

In a volunteer survey project, Anthony Watts and his more than 650 volunteers http://www.surfacestations.org found that over 900 of the first 1067 stations surveyed in the 1221 station US climate network did not come close to meeting the specifications. Only about 3% met the ideal specification for siting. (see Fall etal here).

They found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat. They found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.

The GAO was asked to review the situation and found in a report they issued in 2011,“NOAA does not centrally track whether USHCN stations adhere to siting standards…nor does it have an agency-wide policy regarding stations that don’t meet standards.” The report concluded that 42% of the network in 2010 failed to meet siting standards “Many of the USHCN stations have incomplete temperature records; very few have complete records. 24 of the 1,218 stations (about 2 percent) have complete data from the time they were established.” GAO goes on to state that most stations with long temperature records are likely to have undergone multiple changes in measurement conditions. The issue and the report were largely ignored in the media.

In 2008, Joe D’Aleo asked NOAA’s Tom Karl about the problems with siting and about the plans for a higher quality Climate Reference Network (CRN at that time called NERON). Karl said he had presented a case for a more complete CRN network to NOAA but NOAA said it was unnecessary because they had invested in the more accurate satellite monitoring. The Climate Reference Network was capped at 114 stations and would not provide meaningful trend assessment for about 10 years.

In monthly press releases no satellite measurements are ever mentioned, although NOAA claimed that was the future of observations.

THE INCONVENIENT PAUSE

Confounding the warmist claims, the satellites not under climate center control and increasingly some of the data center data provided contradictory results for almost two decades.

Nature and IPCC Lead Author Kevin Trenberth acknowledged the ‘pause’ and cyclic influences of natural factors like El Nino, ocean cycles on global climate.

The American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in 2015 had 3 panels to attempt to explain away ‘the pause’.

BUOYS TO THE RESCUE

Satellites starting in the late 1970s began to provide full ocean coverage though they could only measure the ‘skin’ temperature, subject to diurnal variations.

Around 2004, a network of floating and capable of diving ARGO buoy (3833 as of October 2020) globally that provided coverage of ocean temperature and heat content largely missing for the previous century.

They inconveniently initially agreed with the lack of warming. 

MAKE THE PAUSE GO AWAY

In 2015 pressure from the politicians funding the sciences told the scientists to fix the inconvenient facts.

John Bates, data quality officer with NOAA detailed how Tom Karl in a paper in Science in June 2015, just a few months before world leaders were to meet in Paris to agree on a costly Paris Climate Accord, removed the inconvenient pause by altering ocean temperatures

“They had good data from buoys…and “corrected” it by using the bad data from ships. You never change good data to agree with bad, but that’s what they did — so as to make it look as if the sea was warmer.”  Remember with the oceans covering 71% of the globe, even small adjustments could have a major impact.

Bates here noted “the evidence kept mounting that Tom Karl constantly had his ‘thumb on the scale’—in the documentation, scientific choices, and release of datasets—in an effort to discredit the notion of a global warming hiatus and rush to time the publication of the paper to influence national and international deliberations on climate policy.”

CLIMATE REFERENCE NETWORK IGNORED

In 2008, NOAA’s Tom Karl responded to questions about the problems with siting and about the plans for a higher quality Climate Reference Network (CRN at that time called NERON). Karl said he had presented a case for a more complete CRN network to NOAA but NOAA said it was unnecessary because they had invested in the more accurate satellite monitoring. The Climate Reference Network was capped at 114 stations and would not provide meaningful trend assessment for about 10 years.

In monthly press releases no satellite measurements are ever mentioned, although NOAA claimed that was the future of observations.

Though not ever mentioned, the Climate Reference Network showed no warming in the period of record.

IT IS ALL IN THE NOISE

Even the most extreme interpretations in the models based on flawed data and failed theory are in the category of noise relative to the normal daily, seasonal and year-to year variance. Daytime highs in mid latitudes are on average 30F higher in the afternoon than early morning. The warmest month often averages 50F higher than the coldest month. The highest ever is over 100F higher than the lowest ever (as high as 187F in Montana).

Record state highs and lows, the most pristine and unaltered data set show the 1930s were by far the warmest years while recent decades have been benign.

As shown above, most of the warming was nighttime associated with urbanization and local airport heat retention.

Tom Karl, Director of the National Climate Data Center had warned in 1989 The average difference between trends [urban siting vs. rural] amounts to an annual warming rate of 0.34°C/decade (6F/century)  … The reason why the warming rate is considerably higher is that the rate may have increased after the 1950s, commensurate with the large recent growth in and around airports. “

DROUGHTS/FLOODS

​The precipitation this year has been above with tropical help, southeast and north central. It was dry west and northeast.  

Overall for the U.S, we se year-to year variance but no clear long-term trends.

HURRICANES

The number of named tropical storms for 2020 is second highest for the North Atlantic though 66.7% of normal globally.

Conversely, the Atlantic Basin ACE at 126.3 is just 39th highest.

The last decade was the second quietest for landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes.

TORNADOES

We had a big April but the tornado season is running in below the 25th percentile.

​WILDFIRES

The number of fires is relatively flat since 2010. Acres are similar to recent big years.

​We can see prior to 1880, wildfires were more common. Sweetnam looked at long-term incidence of wildfires in North America and found they have declined the last century.

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ARCTIC ICE

The arctic ice continues at lower levels as the warm phases in the Atlantic and Pacific deliver warmth with the currents that flow under the ice, The International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks showed how this cycle is similar to the 1920 to 1950s.

See how arctic temperatures (Polyokov) matches the ocean cycles.

Soon showed solar (TSI) tracked with arctic temperatures better than CO2.

SNOWCOVER

The impact on major metros the last decade rocketed to new highs with 10 year running means at record levels back to the 1870s.